Impacts of long-term climate change on human health: a global scoping review of quantitative research.

چکیده اصلی

OBJECTIVES: Research output on the impacts of climate change and human health is growing rapidly. We aimed to synthesise peer-reviewed studies on this subject published between January 2000 and May 2024. DESIGN: Scoping review. DATA SOURCES: Literature was collected from PubMed, Embase and Scopus on 11 November 2019, 25 June 2021 and 22 April 2024. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included English language quantitative peer-reviewed primary research articles about the impacts of long-term climate change (ie, as opposed to effects of weather or single climatic events with the exception of attribution studies) on human health. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts. Full-texts were screened by single reviewers, although 23% of publications selected for full-text screening received an independent second-screening. Reported exposures and health outcomes were classified. Reported quantitative effects of long-term climate change on human health were coded as increasing, decreasing, variable or non-significant. RESULTS: From 60 781 initial records we included 1223 quantitative publications in this scoping review. Health impacts of long-term climate change were studied most often in Europe, the Americas and the Western Pacific. Studies on temperature and on disease vectors, including the diseases they transmit, represented 39.3% and 30.9% of all included publications, respectively. Included results covered over 100 specific health outcomes. Diarrhoeal diseases, malaria, dengue, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the most studied specific health outcomes. While infectious diseases were often studied in low- and middle-income countries, non-communicable diseases were rarely examined in this context. About 20% of included publications provided retrospective results, demonstrating that climate change is already impacting human health in variable ways globally. About 80% of included publications provided prospective results, projecting mostly variable or increasing impacts on human health over the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: Our scoping review provides a comprehensive overview of existing evidence about the impacts of long-term climate change on human health. Currently, differences in research methodologies make it difficult to directly compare study findings. The outcomes of this review can help to harmonise future climate change and health research and support evidence-based climate change adaptation.

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