Post-establishment environmental suitability of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Iran under SSP-based climate scenarios.

چکیده اصلی

Dengue fever is a major and expanding global health threat, exacerbated by climate change. The confirmed establishment of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in multiple Iranian provinces raises serious concerns about potential outbreaks of dengue and other arboviral diseases. From a One Health perspective, understanding how climatic and environmental conditions shape vector establishment is essential for strengthening integrated surveillance and prevention. This underscores the urgent need for evidence-based projections of vector distribution to guide surveillance and control. This study applied the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with updated Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to predict the current and future habitat suitability for both vectors across Iran. Occurrence records were compiled globaly and spatially thinned. Eleven uncorrelated bioclimatic and elevation variables were used for modeling, with model performance validated using multiple performance metrics, including AUC, sensitivity, specificity, TSS, and omission rate, based on independent field occurrence data collected during 2024-2025. Results indicate high suitability for Ae. aegypti in southern and southeastern provinces. Aedes albopictus suitability is highest in Northern provinces, with additional areas in the south. Approximately 12,000 rural communities currently reside in suitable zones. Future projections suggest a gradual decline in some regions by the 2050s and 2070s, though core northern and southern hotspots remain. Aedes aegypti is strongly associated with Isothermality, while Ae. albopictus is linked to the mean temperature of the driest quarter, indicating distinct climatic drivers. Model performance was robust across multiple metrics, and recent field detections aligned with predicted high-suitability areas. These findings emphasize the necessity for targeted, climate-informed vector control, particularly in persistent hotspot provinces and at ports of entry. From a One Health perspective, linking environmental suitability with vector surveillance can help anticipate changes in Aedes distribution and inform timely public health action.

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